Net migration has fallen to the lowest level seen since 2021, when pandemic lockdown restrictions ended and the new immigration rules were introduced following the UK’s EU exit. Our latest figures incorporate the improved methods and data sources the ONS has developed for estimating migration patterns. Mary Gregory unpicks the factors driving current trends.
Net migration – the number of people coming to the UK for 12 months or more minus the number of people leaving – has been falling since its peak in the year ending March 2023. Initially the fall was steady, driven by increasing emigration, especially students who were leaving after arriving in large numbers post-pandemic. However, following various policy changes from early 2024, the decline has been more rapid, with fewer people arriving and more people leaving the UK.
In our latest estimates, net migration provisionally fell from 649,000 (YE June 2024) to 204,000 (YE June 2025).
Migration from outside EU+ nations has been the main driver of change since 2021 and that remains the case. Net migration for this group has more than halved in the 12 months to YE June 2025.
Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has declined by 394,000 (37%) over that period. This is because fewer people are arriving for work and study-related reasons. Notably, the number of dependants arriving with them has fallen dramatically. At its peak in 2023, the numbers of work and study dependants arriving was 374,000, which has now fallen to 98,000.
As non-EU+ immigration has fallen, emigration has increased. It is being driven primarily by people who originally came as students, especially Indian and Chinese nationals. However, we also know more students are staying for longer, rather than leaving immediately after their course.
While the trends based on non-EU+ migration are clear to see, net migration has fallen more steeply than originally estimated. As I highlighted in my blog last week, our planned data and methods improvements have helped us to better understand and estimate British and EU+ migration.
The impact of our improvements
We have been undertaking a planned programme of improvement – moving away from surveys to use of administrative data held by government to provide more accurate estimates. Our approach has become increasingly mature, now using Home Office Borders and Immigration data for EU+ estimates as well as continued use for non-EU+ estimates, while for migration of British nationals we’re using Department for Work and Pensions’ tax and benefits data (the Registration and Population Interaction Database known as RAPID), rather than the International Passenger Survey.
This now means that we no longer rely on survey data for any part of our migration estimates and are instead using administrative data that enables us to produce estimates based on observed behaviours, rather than relying on what people told us about their future intentions while travelling through a port or airport.
Both British and EU+ net migration is negative. In other words, more people are leaving the UK than arriving. The data and method improvements we’ve made mean British net migration in recent times is around 100,000 per year lower than we were previously estimating, while EU+ net migration, although still negative, is now around 20,000 higher than we previously said. Overall, the impact of our changes from these groups on our net migration estimates is in the region of negative 80,000 per year since 2023.
A better understanding of British migration
The improvements we’ve made to understand British migration has increased both immigration and emigration estimates. However, net migration of British nationals remains similar to our migration estimates for 2012-2021. Our analysis based on Census 2021, as we’d long suspected, confirmed the International Passenger Survey had historically been underestimating British emigration. This is something our new estimates from RAPID also show.
Therefore, while, at face value, the newly published estimates of net emigration of British nationals since 2021 is stark, most of that increase is due to our improved methods.
What we can’t tell from the new data is the extent to which behaviours have changed. Estimating migration for British nationals is challenging because they make up such a small proportion of British people travelling to and from the UK on a daily basis – most for holidays.
Our new data enables greater insights. For instance, it shows around three-quarters of British nationals who emigrated in the YE June 2025 were under the age of 35. But RAPID doesn’t give us a reason for migration or tell us where British people are going to.
We will need improved data sources to reduce uncertainty and truly understand what is going on with British migration. We are continuing to explore other data sources which have the potential to support this.
Will the trends continue?
While the trends in migration are showing a steep decline, we do not know whether or not net migration will continue to fall or how far it might fall.
Monthly Home Office visa data does, however, give us some clues. We can see that applications for health and social care visas and skilled worker visas (for main applicants and dependants) have continued to fall since changes to immigration rules in the White Paper in July.
Our latest estimates, as always, are provisional. As we get more complete or better travel data, we will update our estimates.
Changes in society, the economy and government policy can all impact future levels of migration. Our role as the nation’s independent producer of official statistics is to give the best estimates, using the best available sources.
We are currently working with the Home Office to investigate inconsistencies in some visa data, mainly affecting family emigration. This does not affect the overall migration patterns in our latest release. However, there is greater uncertainty in family visa data in more recent years. We anticipate some small revisions (migration on family visas makes up only a small part of the overall migration picture) based on this in future.
On 11 December, we are holding our 2025 Migration Statistics User Forum. This annual event is a great opportunity for you to hear from those who produce migration statistics, including statisticians from the Home Office and the ONS. There will also be sessions from Full Fact and the Resolution Foundation (on Ageing in the fast and slow lane).
As ever, if you have any feedback or questions, please contact us via email at pop.info@ons.gov.uk
Mary Gregory – Executive Director for population statistics and census