Posts by Craig McLaren

Communicating uncertainty in GDP estimates

Craig McLaren
Categories: ONS
Graph picture

The UK economy has been affected by some unprecedented events in recent years, with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic followed immediately by the huge rise in energy costs due to the war in the Ukraine. For the ONS, these have increased the challenge of producing economic statistics that are both fast and accurate. Dramatic changes in the underlying data tend to bring added uncertainty to our initial estimates. As Craig McLaren explains, we are exploring ways to better portray this in our statistical outputs.   

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GDP – Bringing the big picture up-to-date

Craig McLaren
Categories: ONS
Image depicting income data, charts and a pile of coins

Today the Office for National Statistics has brought previously announced updates for the pandemic period into its official GDP figures and updated its figures for 2022 and the first half of 2023. As Craig McLaren explains, after the improved picture for 2020 and 2021, today’s figures leave the picture of the UK economy over the last 18 months broadly unchanged.

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Improving our estimate of businesses’ outgoings during the COVID-19 pandemic

Craig McLaren
Categories: Business, Coronavirus, Data, Economy, ONS
Image of the City of London

The ONS has published updated and indicative estimates of GDP, which show that the economy was larger than we previously thought in 2020 and 2021, though our estimate for the UK’s monthly and quarterly economic trends is broadly unchanged. Craig McLaren explains what’s led to this brighter picture.   

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What is GDP and how do we measure it?

Craig McLaren
Categories: Data, Economy, Office for National Statistics, ONS
Car Factory Engineer in High Visibility Vest Using Laptop Computer in an Automotive Industrial Manufacturing Facility

Gross Domestic Product, more commonly known as GDP, remains the world’s most closely-watched economic indicator. Its growth – or lack of it – is used to measure economic progress. A positive GDP reading suggests an economy is growing, a negative one that it’s slowing down. But there is much more to GDP that just one number. In this post Craig McLaren is our guide to how GDP is calculated and how it’s best understood.  

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Updating our estimates of the pandemic’s effects on the UK’s economy – the new ONS estimates explained

Craig McLaren
Categories: ONS

The ONS has published updated, indicative, estimates for how much the economy shrank in 2020, when COVID-19 first hit. These numbers look a little different to our earlier takes on this challenging period. Craig McLaren explains what’s changed and why. 

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