Posts by Craig McLaren

Communicating uncertainty in GDP estimates

Graph picture

The UK economy has been affected by some unprecedented events in recent years, with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic followed immediately by the huge rise in energy costs due to the war in the Ukraine. For the ONS, these have increased the challenge of producing economic statistics that are both fast and accurate. Dramatic changes in the underlying data tend to bring added uncertainty to our initial estimates. As Craig McLaren explains, we are exploring ways to better portray this in our statistical outputs.   

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GDP – Bringing the big picture up-to-date

Image depicting income data, charts and a pile of coins

Today the Office for National Statistics has brought previously announced updates for the pandemic period into its official GDP figures and updated its figures for 2022 and the first half of 2023. As Craig McLaren explains, after the improved picture for 2020 and 2021, today’s figures leave the picture of the UK economy over the last 18 months broadly unchanged.

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Improving our estimate of businesses’ outgoings during the COVID-19 pandemic

Image of the City of London

The ONS has published updated and indicative estimates of GDP, which show that the economy was larger than we previously thought in 2020 and 2021, though our estimate for the UK’s monthly and quarterly economic trends is broadly unchanged. Craig McLaren explains what’s led to this brighter picture.   

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