National Statistical

The latest episode of the Statistically Speaking podcast reveals how the ONS is now measuring UK consumer price inflation with data gathered from supermarket checkouts. Our guests explain why it’s a step change in the production of this vital economic indicator that broadens our understanding of the real cost of the living.

For eighty years, inflation indices were compiled by tracking the price of hundreds of goods and services in our virtual shopping basket. This month we’ve supersized it, going from 25,000 monthly price points, recorded on mobile devices in shops by price collectors, to 300 million price points derived from sales of over a billion units of products per month taken directly from the supermarket scanners.

Joining host Miles Fletcher in the bagging area are ONS Deputy Director for Prices Transformation Mike Hardie and former Bank of England interest rate setter and Professor Jonathan Haskel of Imperial College London.

As Mike explains: “Scanner data gives us a far richer and more granular picture of inflation. We can see not just prices on the shelf, but what people actually pay at the till and how their purchasing choices change—giving us a much clearer picture of how the cost of living is really affecting people.”

Jonathan adds: “The real advantage of scanner data is not just that it gives us many more observations, but that it provides a powerful check on how representative traditional price collection has been. It’s a major step forward—but it builds on, rather than replaces, the careful work the ONS has been doing for years.”

He adds that “if the current rise in energy prices is maintained for a long time that might well feed through to food prices in various ways, and then we’re going to need all the detail that Mike and his team are providing in order to make better policy.”

All that and why Taylor Swift can no longer be accused of distorting UK inflation estimates…

 ‘Supermarket Sweep’ is available to download here and all the major podcast platforms.