Posts by Sarah Caul

How do we measure expected and excess deaths?

Close up image of death certificate

There has been widespread interest in the number of excess deaths across the UK. That is, the difference between the actual number of deaths observed and the number that was expected. But how do you calculate the expected number of deaths? Sarah Caul explains a new cross-UK initiative to take stock of how we calculate expected, and excess, deaths.  

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Understanding excess deaths during a pandemic

An image of building blogs arranged for the year 2020, with the end zero changing to a one to reflect the new year

To give meaningful comparisons of mortality over time, the Office for National Statistics uses a five-year average.  This is designed to show us the expected number of deaths for a given year. However, the pandemic has had a big impact on this average and of what a ‘normal’ year looks like. Sarah Caul explains why, for 2022, the year 2020 will not be included as part of our five-year average.

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Counting deaths involving coronavirus: a year in review

Since before the pandemic the Office for National Statistics has been publishing death registrations in England and Wales on a weekly basis. What was once a little-known dataset has become one of the most important and widely used documents for tracking deaths throughout the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Today’s deaths registered weekly in England and Wales marks the end of 2020 death registration. But how does 2020 compare to previous years? Sarah Caul explains the complexities behind mortality comparisons…

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